22-23
We dug in 1 crown and measured 11" of SWE above the weak layer (1mm facets) that avalanched. Every weak layer has a breaking point, and this layer needed about 11 feet of snowfall to get it to avalanche.
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Mar 18, 2023
An extensive Avalanche Cycle
Riding around Lionhead and into the back bowls revealed an extensive avalanche cycle that occurred with the Avalanche Warning 2 days ago. Some slides were hard to see since they were buried in snow while others were more fresh. Crown lines near the ridges, debris piles at the bottom of slopes, and debris pushed high onto trees were evidence of the recent activity. Many slopes avalanched; more than we've ever seen in this area.
We dug in 1 crown and measured 11" of SWE above the weak layer (1mm facets) that avalanched. Every weak layer has a breaking point, and this layer needed about 11 feet of snowfall to get it to avalanche.
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Mar 17, 2023
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Don’t be tricked by today’s beautiful weather. Avalanche conditions remain dangerous in the mountains around West Yellowstone and Cooke City. Two days of sunny skies does almost nothing to stabilize the deeply buried weak layers. The weak layers deep in the snowpack are still straining under the weight of the 2 to 3 feet of snow (2-2.5” </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="http://snow.wyo.gov/snow-surveys/snow-water-equivalent-swe"><span><span… water equivalent</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>) that fell mid-week (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/_eAH-TlOPUU"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… Basin video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Human triggered avalanches are likely. Avalanches could break beneath the new snow and be plenty deep to bury you or break on the weak layers deep in the snowpack and be huge and likely unsurvivable. Avoid riding steep slopes and also give them a wide berth when crossing beneath them so you don’t get buried from above. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In addition, warm temperatures and strong spring sun add a whole other set of concerns. Cornices are primed to break off. Stay way back from the edge while traveling on ridgelines and before traveling beneath them remember that a huge cornice falling onto a slope is a perfect trigger for a big deep slab avalanche. Sunny slopes could see the snow surface getting wet this afternoon. With so much new snow loose wet avalanches could be large enough to be quite dangerous. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Roof avalanches are also a real concern as roofs shed their winter snowpack. There was a close call earlier this week in Island Park, ID with an 8 year old girl completely buried for half an hour before being found and dug out. Keep kids well away from snowy roofs when they’re playing outside and be wary about shoveling a roof out while solo. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky got half as much snow in this last storm (around a foot), so large avalanches are a bit less likely, but still possible. There are weak layers throughout the snowpack that are still adjusting the storm’s load and while the new snow has started to bond, you could still trigger a slide breaking there as well. A smaller avalanche in the new snow could then trigger a deeper, larger slide. Loose wet avalanches will be thinner, but could push you off a cliff or into trees. Before riding steep slopes carefully assess the upper snowpack and keep the possibility of deeper slides in mind.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Human triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is MODERATE. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Please share avalanche, snowpack or weather observations via our</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><span><span><span><span>…; </span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span><span>website</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, email (</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>mtavalanche@gmail.com</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Don’t be tricked by today’s beautiful weather. Avalanche conditions remain dangerous. Avalanches could break beneath the new snow and be plenty deep to bury you or break on the weak layers deep in the snowpack and be huge and likely unsurvivable. Avoid riding steep slopes and also give them a wide berth when crossing beneath them so you don’t get buried from above. See </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-lUMunzE1k"><span><span><span><span><s…’s video</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> from yesterday on Sawtelle Peak for a rundown on the aftermath of this week’s avalanche warning. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar.
Natural avalanches in new snow around Cooke
Saw this natural D2 soft slab off the east aspect of Miller Ridge. The crown looks shallow, so I’m guessing it ran at the storm interface. 3/16/23. Photo: N. Hance
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Mar 17, 2023