22-23

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Feb 28, 2023

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Excepting last Thursday, the mountains around West Yellowstone and Cooke City have received measurable snowfall every day for over a week, with 9-12” in the last two days and moderate to strong winds for the last four. A lot of new snow and strong winds will likely result in avalanches, especially on wind-loaded slopes where recent drifts could break from a few inches to several feet deep.</p>

<p>This has undoubtedly been the case in Cooke City, with many large natural avalanches and four people caught and partially buried since Saturday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28338"><strong><span>Town Hill - 2 partially buried</span></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28331"><strong><span>Mt. Abundance - partial burial</span></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/skier-triggered-slide-near-round-… Lake - partial burial</span></strong></a>). Browse through the <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity"><strong><span>Avalanche Activity Log</span></strong></a> on our website to see a complete list of recent activity. Take note of the great <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r-m6BAhr7E"><strong><span>video</span>…; a group of riders captured of a natural avalanche occurring near Pilot Creek on Friday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28363"><strong><span>additional details</span></strong></a>). Yesterday, Alex and I rode north of Cooke City and described our concerns highlighting wind-loaded slopes (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg_5u0AZfNo&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvTi1DBS…;

<p>We have not received an equivalent number of reports from the Lionhead area, but we know that recent snow and wind conditions have been similar, a rider was partially buried on Thursday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28354"><strong><span>details</span></s…;) and a second group submitted a <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/avalanches-wind-loaded-slopes-lio…; of a recent avalanche on a wind-loaded slope.</p>

<p>Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes where triggering an avalanche is likely. Evaluate the snowpack for instabilities within or underneath recent snow before considering riding or skiing non-wind-loaded slopes. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on other slopes.</p>

<p>In the Gallatin, Madison and Bridger Ranges, 2-11” of snow since Saturday favored the areas further south. Slides breaking a few inches to 2 feet deep within drifts of the most recent snow are the most likely scenario today. Yesterday, the USFS snow rangers reported a small avalanche on a wind-loaded slope at Buck Ridge (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28368"><strong><span>photo and details</span></strong></a>). On Saturday, skiers in the Southern Gallatin Range intentionally triggered a small avalanche on a wind-loaded slope below a cornice (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiXHzeIBNHI"><strong><span>video</span>…;). Last Friday, a rider triggered a small avalanche at Buck Ridge (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28293"><strong><span>photo and details</span></strong></a>), a large cornice collapsed in Bear Basin (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/natural-cornice-collapse-beehive"… and details</span></strong></a>), and large natural avalanches occurred on <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28360"><strong><span>Mount Bole</span></strong></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/large-natural-wind-slab-mt-blackm… Blackmore</span></strong></a> and <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28325"><strong><span>Fan Mountain</span></strong></a>. While less likely, larger avalanches similar to those in Hyalite and near Big Sky that break under the 2-4’ of snow from the last week are possible.</p>

<p>Identify and rule out wind-loaded slopes by noting, for example, active drifting or areas below or next to cornices. On non-wind-loaded slopes, test for instability with a quick snowpit before considering riding or skiing steeper terrain. Today, human-triggered avalanches are possible, and the danger is MODERATE.</p>

<p><span>Please share avalanche, snowpack or weather observations via our<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><span&gt; </span></a><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><strong><span>website</s…;, email (<strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs). <span><span>&nbsp;</span></span><span>&nbsp;</span></span></p>

<p><span>The Centennial Range received 10-14” of snow in the last 48 hours. Moderate to strong winds are transporting this snow into drifts on wind-loaded slopes where human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes. Evaluate the snowpack for instabilities within or underneath recent snow before considering travel on non-wind-loaded slopes.</span></p>

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Two Caught at Lionhead

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

I had heard a rumor from snowmobilers that there was a human-triggered avalanche on Lionhead on Thursday the 23rd.  While in Taylor Fork yesterday, we ran into one of the individuals that was a part of the incident. The jist of it was he and a buddy were climbing together, and he uncovered a rock that his buddy then hit.  While the first rider continued to climb, he triggered a slide, and it partially buried the second rider.  He was able to deploy his airbag but was carried approximately 100 yds down the slope where he was buried.  Other members of his group quickly found him. 

Region
Lionhead Range
Location (from list)
LIONHEAD AREA
Observer Name
Ryan Linhart

Small natural avalanche Buck ridge

Buck Ridge
Northern Madison
Code
SS-N-R1-D1
Aspect
N
Latitude
45.17030
Longitude
-111.37300
Notes

From USFS Snow Ranger Report: "We rode on Buck Ridge today to do some maintenance on our RAWS station for the fire folks and check on the yellow mule cabin.  Where the wind hadn't blown it away yet, there was 4" of snow from over night on top of very firm snow, likely from the last round of wind.  The most sheltered areas behind trees and down in the basins still had some deeper, soft snow and better riding.  We saw one small wind slab avalanche in the new snow above Beaver Creek on a north aspect."

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
1
D size
1
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Natural Avalanche b/w Cooke City and Silver Gate

COOKE CITY
Cooke City
Code
N-R3-D2
Elevation
9200
Aspect
SE
Latitude
45.02020
Longitude
-109.93800
Notes

From email, "I think this natural avalanche happened about 24-48 hours ago.  (pretty sure it wasn't there 2-3 days ago?). It's an E, SE aspect, about 9200', between Cooke City and Silver Gate."

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
3
D size
2
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

From email, "I think this natural avalanche happened about 24-48 hours ago.  (pretty sure it wasn't there 2-3 days ago?). It's an E, SE aspect, about 9200', between Cooke City and Silver Gate." B Fredlund

Cooke City, 2023-02-27

Natural Avalanche b/w Cooke City and Silver Gate

Date
Activity
Skiing

I think this natural avalanche happened about 24-48 hours ago.  (pretty sure it wasn't there 2-3 days ago?). It's an E, SE aspect, about 9200', between Cooke City and Silver Gate.

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
COOKE CITY
Observer Name
Beau Fredlund

Natural avalanche witnessed - Pilot Creek

COOKE CITY
Cooke City
Code
N
Latitude
45.02020
Longitude
-109.93800
Notes

A group watched a natural avalanche from the Pilot Creek Parking area cascade down the mountainside on Friday, 2/24/23 at 5:00 PM. 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Trigger
Natural trigger
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year